Forewarnings
Li Yong, Geological Expert at the Chengdu University of Technology in Sichuan
This Chinese geological expert had raised the possibility of a dangerous earthquake in the area in 2007.
“The line of the middle fault is as clear as a string. It suggests continuous and strong movement. Such a long and clear lineament should trigger a big quake. Other scientists have had similar ideas….Many experts have provided their knowledge and suggestions, but how much of it became a reality in these towns and villages isn’t something that’s convenient for me to say.”
www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/30/asia/quake.php
Liu Jingbo, Professor at the Construction Institute of Disaster Preparation and Relief at Tsinghua University in Beijing
A professor in disaster preparation comments on the failure of the Chinese government to heed the warnings of the scientific community.
“When I saw the footage of Beichuan City after the earthquake, I was stunned. How could a populous city be built in such a risky area, particularly right at the foot of mountains? When an earthquake occurs, it’s not just the collapse of buildings that buries people, but boulders and huge rocks and mud flows that follow on immediately.”
www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/30/asia/quake.php
Peng Juan, Wenchuan County Government Official
This government official speaks to the lack of government preparedness.
“We had never been made aware of the earthquake risks. It had never happened before.”
www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/30/asia/quake.php
Gao Jianguo, Researcher with the China Earthquake Administration in Beijing
This Chinese researcher speaks out about the failure of officials to listen to clear warnings of the potential for a devastating earthquake in the area.
“Chinese people have a saying that you learn a fence needs mending after the sheep have run away. In this case, people wouldn’t recognize the danger until the sheep actually died. We tried to lay out the reasons beforehand, but people wouldn’t listen….The earthquake administration didn’t warn the government enough.”
www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/30/asia/quake.php
Li Youcai, Retired Senior Engineer of the Provincial Seismological Authorities.
Li issued various warnings about the potential dangers of a large-scale earthquake occuring in the vicinity of the Zipingpu dam. Read about the responses he received from groups such as the China Earthquake Administration.
www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/2210-The-Zipingpu-dam-after-the-quake
Earthquake Prediction
Dr. Friedemann Freund, NASA Geophysics Researcher
Dr. Freund finds support for his theory on earthquake prediction when NASA earth scientists monitoring infrared images of the earth noticed unusual patterns occurring in Sichuan province days before the disastrous earthquake.
Freund’s theory states that earthquakes are the culmination of drawn-out physical processes that can be tracked sometimes more than a week ahead of the main event. The idea is that rocks, when put under enough pressure from the shifting of tectonic plates, for example, turn into batteries emitting electrical currents which can be observed with infrared technology.
http://s.wsj.net/public/article_print/SB121124372394605609.html
The Scale of China’s May 12 Quake
Tom Parsons, Chen Ji & Eric Kirby, Nature magazine, Volume 454, July 2008
An article published in Nature magazine weighs in on the impact of China’s recent earthquake to local stress in the Earth’s crust.
Read a summary here.
Mario Chavez, Professor of Seismological Engineering at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City.
Chavez’s preliminary results indicate how much, and in which direction, the ground moved throughout a vast region including the earthquake’s epicentre.
The seismic waves calculated by a computer model, and verified by ground-motion velocities measured during the earthquake and at Chinese seismological stations, may be of use in helping the Chinese target aid to the hardest hit of those areas… [and] may also help locate which of the hundreds of dams in the stricken region are the most at risk.
Chavez said that recorded displacements of at least 1.5 metres (5 feet) could readily explain the landslide that formed a fragile dam across the Jianhe River and forced the evacuation of approximately 160,000 people in the area.
www.innovations-report.de/html/berichte/veranstaltungen/bericht-111205.html
Hong Hao, Civil Engineer at the University of Western Australia
Although the Global Hazard Seismic Assessment Program predicted that the Sichuan area had a 10% risk in 50 years of an earthquake with peak ground acceleration of 1.6 m/s squared, Hao says:
"This earthquake would have far exceeded that, perhaps by a factor of five. By some estimates at its epicenter, the energy released would have been equivalent to 300 to 400 Hiroshima atomic bombs….The seismic code for the area substantially underestimated the earthquake strength."
http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn13885-accepted-level-of-earthquake-risk-in-china-too-high.html
Professor Yugi Yagi, Tsukuba University, Japan
The faults responsible for the Sichuan earthquake were about 250 kilometres to 300 kilometres long, and the focus was relatively shallow at a depth of about 10 kilometres to 20 kilometres.
“The fault possibly became that long because two faults slipped simultaneously,” said Prof. Yagi.
The shaking was said to have extended for some time as the faults shifted for about two minutes. The waves were felt by people as far away as Beijing and Shanghai – more than 1,500 kilometres from the epicentre.
www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/features/science/20080524TDY04304.htm
Kevin McCue, Director of the Australian Seismological Centre in Canberra
"All around the world, buildings are designed to withstand ground motion that has a greater than 10% risk of occurring in 50 years…that's considered too high a risk for dams and nuclear reactors."
http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn13885-accepted-level-of-earthquake-risk-in-china-too-high.html
Leigh Royden, one of a team of geologists from Massachusett's Institute of Technology researching in China
Having recently published a paper analyzing the causes of the quake in the July issue of the journal GSA Today, Royden confirms that:
"Nobody was thinking there would be a major seismological event in that area. This earthquake was quite unusual, and may have involved a simultaneous rupture of two separate but contiguous faults."
http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/29356/
Reservoir-induced seismicity and the role of China’s dams
Dr. Philip Williams of Philip Williams and Associates (Environmental Hydrology and Planning) points out the connection between reservoir-induced seismicity and the Zipingpu Dam, located a few kilometres from the earthquake’s epicentre.
old.probeinternational.org/catalog/content_fullstory.php?contentId=6840&cat_id=7
Fan Xiao, Chief Engineer of the Regional Geology Investigation Team of the Sichuan Geology and Mineral Bureau
Fan Xiao expresses his concern about the earthquake and its potential link with the Zipingpu Dam reservoir.
“Even if the Zipingpu reservoir hadn’t been built, the quake would have occurred in this area, but not necessarily with a magnitude of 8…. Secondly, if Zipingpu hadn’t been built, the epicentre would not have been in the current position, so close to the reservoir, but possibly somewhere else. Thirdly, if Zipingpu hadn’t been built, the quake would likely have occurred 100 or even 200 years later, but not now.”
old.probeinternational.org/catalog/content_fullstory.php?contentId=6846&cat_id=7
Jeff Freymueller and Shusun Li, Scientists at the UAF Geophysical Institute
"Because of the large distance (400 miles) between the [Three Gorges] dam and the [Sichuan] earthquake, it is unlikely that the dam and reservoir had a significant impact. The main cause (probably the only cause) of the earthquake is the eastward motion of the eastern Tibetan plateau relative to south China. This is ultimately driven by the collision of India with Eurasia."
www.alaskareport.com/news68/ned71130_dam_quake.htm
Dr. Christian Klose, Professor in the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences at Columbia University
Professor Klose has researched and published on the phenomena of man-made earthquakes. Read this article which refers to his work.
http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/06/top-5-ways-that.html
Fan Xiaori, Head Engineer at the Sichuan Bureau of Geological Exploration's Surveying Team.
This Chinese engineer wrote in China National Geographic that the possibility of the [Zipingpu] reservoir triggering the earthquake could not be ignored.
www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/2210-The-Zipingpu-dam-after-the-quake
Quake Lakes and Dam Failure
Dr. Martin Wieland, Chairman of the ICOLD Commission on Seismic Aspects of Dam Design
“Shortly after the devastating earthquake reports appeared of cracks on the concrete face of the 156m high Zipingpu concrete face rockfill dam (CFRD), which is located upstream of Dujiangyan City. [The reservoir’s] low level meant it was possible to detect these cracks – they would not have been visible if the reservoir were full. As modern CFRDs such as Zipingpu dam are designed to withstand severe leakages in the concrete face, and in view of the low water level in the reservoir, the dam can be considered stable and safe.”
“Around 400 dams were affected by the Sichaun earthquake. Most of these were small embankment dams and gaining access to these sites is difficult….Due to the large number of landslides it is expected that some smaller rivers will be blocked. The sudden failure of such ‘earthquake’ dams may have similar consequences as the failure of one of the damaged dams.”
www.waterpowermagazine.com/story.asp?sectioncode=130&storyCode=2049686
Professor Petley, Wilson Professor in Hazard and Risk at Durham University
Professor Petley discusses the best way to relieve pressure on the natural dams created by landslides in the earthquake and the consequences if these lakes were to burst.
Professor Petley said that the usual method of breaching a dam would be to build a channel across the top, starting from the dry side and excavating towards the water.
“The channel has to be lined with big rocks to stop the water corroding it and causing a huge flood, but the key thing with this method is that only the water at the top of the lake will flow out and you control the flood.”
If the water were to seep through and erode the barrier, it could send bricks, trees and other debris downstream, “You can’t be sure that the town below would be destroyed, but it would certainly be a very dangerous place to be,” he said.
www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article3972785.ece
Gu Junyuan, Chief Engineer, State Electricity Regulatory Commission
Several dams weakened by the earthquake might not be able to withstand strong aftershocks or flooding.
“The earthquake this time has caused damage at various levels to reservoirs and dams. Safety experts have been put in place to monitor the operation of the dams 24 hours a day.”
www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article3972785.ece
E. Jingping, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Water Resources
“Sixty-nine dams are in danger of collapse from the first quake,” and, “sixty-nine reservoirs are in ‘immediate’ danger of bursting.” This statement was made before the magnitude 6.4 aftershock hit Sichuan on May 25, 2008.
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aj.BXz_QEUTg&refer=home
Yun Xiaosu, Vice Minister of Land and Resources & Liu Yuan, Engineer from the Chinese Environment Ministry
These government officials comment about the potential for danger caused by large scale flooding and backed-up rivers.
Yun Xiaosu said: “This can all cause new catastrophes. We must go to every village and we must go to all the sites of geological disturbances. This will take a long time.”
Liu Yuan added: “It is fair to say these lakes pose a very great danger.”
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/22/AR2008052200476.html
Liu Shukun, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Liu comments on the nearly 350 dams built along the Min River and its tributaries which were damaged during the earthquake.
"It is unwise to build so many dams in the Min River earthquake belt. The small hydropower plants do not have careful planning."
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/22/AR2008052200476.html
John Sherstobitoff, Engineer with Sandwell Engineering Inc
Read about this engineer's work in seismic retrofits, designed to isolate the
effect of earthquakes on dams - even underwater.
Seismic isolation consists of placing a series of one to one-and-half-metre wide
discs within a building's supports or foundation creating a buffer with the
earth. These discs then act like shock absorber on a vehicle, Sherstobitoff
said.
http://www.journalofcommerce.com/article/id28959
